What Does the Australia-France Submarine Deal Collapse Reveal About Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific Region?
Last month, Australia cancelled its contract with France to purchase French submarines. Through this agreement, made in 2016 in Canberra, both parties agreed that Australia would be provided with submarines for €34 billion over a 25-year period. This agreement was to replace Australia’s own outdated fleet of submarines called Collins Class. Its aim was to forge a lasting alliance and provide France with a renewed presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia has withdrawn from the agreement and entered a partnership with the US and UK (AUKUS). This new partnership will instead provide Australia with a nuclear-powered fleet of submarines.
With rising tensions with China and America’s vested interest in Canberra, the cancellation with France was inevitable. Over the years, China has hardened its expansionist policy as US presence in the Pacific has declined under the Obama administration. With the AUKUS partnership, Western power in the Indo-Pacific region will grow in response to China’s presence in the region.
President Joe Biden spoke out about the new partnership to claim that ‘this is about investing in our greatest source of strength- our alliances- and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow’. Scott Morrison justified abandoning the French agreement by stating it as ‘not a change of mind, it’s a change of need’.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated that cancellation was ‘unacceptable behaviour between allies and partners’. France withdrew its ambassadors in Australia in response. This was met with mixed responses from Australian ministers as Minister Penny Wong came forward to accuse the Morrison government of once again failing to do the diplomatic legwork required. Minister Jason Malinski, on the other hand, scrutinised the withdrawal of ambassadors as a mere display for the French elections to show that the French coalition has the public interest at heart.
The European Union is Australia’s second-largest trading partner and this ‘snub’ could result in France influencing other EU members to be strategically difficult in future trade negotiations with Australia. Australia needs to continue to satisfy diplomatic efforts in their other EU trade negotiations, especially with Germany and Italy.
At the core of the issue is a dispute of whether sovereignty is more important than security. France maintains that Australia cares more about the latter. Australia will never prioritise sovereignty like France because post-colonial Australia has never experienced true sovereignty in the way France has. With China’s growing regional presence, Australia’s strategic geographic position is a stronghold for Western presence to take a stand against China. The reality of Australia’s diplomatic efforts and alliances is that Australia has only refocused from one influence to another. The withdrawal from the French agreement is another step away from autonomous defence systems. With the AUKUS partnership, it seems that making weapons that are interchangeable with those of the US Army has made Canberra incapable of forming an independent future.
